Predictions, Probabilities and Perfect Weather

As I age and become more attuned to politics and my own well-
being, I will attempt to spare myself epic disappointment on
Tuesday, November 2nd, by issuing my first-ever predictions
for a mid-term election. It's better this way.

It should be noted first and foremost that I am probably not in
the best frame of mind to make these guesses, despite how
educated they may be. As a political junkie in 2010, I have found
myself surrounded by one of the most mean-spirited campaign
bloodbaths I have ever seen (and my first presidential election
was Bush vs. Gore!) Getting to this point has been brutal for just
about everyone: the voter, the media (who do you think spends
so much time spinning this crap?!) and I'm sure--the candidates
themselves. Yet, I personally have a difficult time preparing
myself for the 'night of nights' due to my growing disenchantment
with the Democratic Party.

Since climbing back to the top of the Congressional mountain in
'06, Democratic performance has been very disappointing, from
the Party's lack of balls while George W. Bush lived out his lame-
duck existence to not being able to properly explain a health care
bill that actually holds promise for the country. If that weren't
enough, our Democratic leaders in Congress and--yes--our very
own President, continues to nibble (if not bite) the hand that feeds
them. As a Gay Liberal, I am very disappointed that the judicial
verdict of repealing "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" has been appealed by
the Obama Administration--the very group of people who not only
supported, but promised the repeal of the ridiculous law. While the
issue of DADT pales greatly in comparison to the economy, it is just
one more testimony of how Democrats have offended not only their
progressive members, but countless moderates as well, by appearing
weak and off-message. The whole thing makes me sick. Still, I'll vote
Democratic on Tuesday. And I'll do so because although Tea Party/
Republican candidates make some sense when complaining about
the lack of Democratic strength, their complaints certainly don't
imply any new ideas. The "Party of NO" is still alive and well, and I'm
not about to trade progress (however small) for moral pandering and
a return to the blatant arrogance and lack of domestic investment of
the Bush era. I'm resentful but not stupid: the grass is no greener on
the other side. With the Republican Party's environmental stances,
I'd be surprised if there was grass at all.

My predictions will be found in the next few entries. I wont attempt
to predict most House campaign (there are 435 of them!) but the
Senate and Governors races will be captured. I have developed these
guesses from MONTHS of viewing polls, campaign ads and reading
about the candidates. The biggest factor in my predictions, though,
has little to do with funds raised or polls, but more to do with the
political ideology and mood of the state and/or district. Projected
winning candidates will appear in bold form; margins appearing in
red (of course). These guesses have a 99-100% margin of error. ;)
Enjoy.

Get out to the polls on Tuesday, November 2nd, a day forecasted as
being 'partly cloudy.'

Oh, the irony.