No, I haven't drank any acid-laced moonshine (that's what it means when someone refers to 'drinking the Kool-Aid' in my native-state.)The Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary caused such a stir (okay, just with the media) that I can't help but trot out some thoughts and predictions. Keep in mind that although I consider myself a Liberal Progressive Socialistic Democrat (and any other choice descriptions that annoy Conservative Republicans) and that these GOP candidates have zero chance of getting my vote, I am objective enough to give the contenders a fair assessment. You may not always agree with the beliefs and record of a candidate, but that doesn't mean that you can't judge them on their electability and general candidacy. So, from the next dropout to the man who might be occupying the White House, here goes:
Rick Santorum, the testy, family-focused, ultra-conservative from Pennsylvania, needs to pack his bags. He'll do alright in South Carolina with the gospel-according-to-Rick that people in the Palmetto State like to hear. Although he was eight votes shy of stealing Iowa from "The Mittiest" of former Massachusetts governors, his showing in New Hampshire was poor since he didn't bother to campaign there. Unfortunately, the Rickster's fundraising has yielded terrible results and he is quickly running out of cash. Santorum must have a 2nd place finish in South Carolina to continue to Florida. Good riddance.
Perhaps Jon Huntsman and Santorum should hop the next plane together. Although Huntsman's finances aren't as nightmarish as Santorum's, Conservatives just don't trust the guy--as they shouldn't. His job as
Ambassador to China came courtesy of President Obama and his governorship of Utah could be viewed as moderate in many ways. While his horrendous 1% showing in Iowa (he didn't bother to campaign there) was dismal, his 17%, 3rd place in New Hampshire was respectable. Unfortunately, he should've beat Ron Paul to be viewed as a serious contender. South Carolinians will smell a rat and he'll do poorly there. Anything less than 3rd place in the Palmetto State will send him packing, which is sad, since he's the one out of the bunch that I like best. Huntsman's probably the most genuine, sensible guy on the platform.
I'm a little nervous to say anything about Newt Gingrich. I think that the former Speaker will survive nicely in South Carolina; 2nd or maybe 3rd place. SC is around Newt's "neck of the woods" and he is well-liked there. He will go on to Florida, which is a very crucial state for him. He'll resonate with Conservative, Jeb Bush-old-guard followers there but I don't know how he'll fare against Romney or Ron Paul. Newt is one smart S.O.B. but his arrogance is a major turn-off and I think that my thoughts must be shared by others since his cash-flow isn't where it needs to be these days. Still, stay tuned...
Rick Perry, while close to being viewed in the same light of the R.I.P.-just-drowned candidacy of Michelle Bachmann, should certainly not be discounted. Not only will he do well in South Carolina, but he just might take 1st prize (remember: Romney is the front-runner but Romney is also a Yankee.) Perry's future in Florida looks a lot less certain, but his war chest is large, his debts are comparatively small and Southern states will be sympathetic to his rhetoric and folksy approach. If he could only shut his mouth and appear less confused on the stage. It's a question from a moderator, Governor. No one is expecting you to deciphyer ancient Egyptian code...
In any other election year, Ron Paul wouldn't have made it past New Hampshire. A 76 year-old Texas Congressman who isn't the moral preacher of the party, shoots off the hip, doesn't always vote with the posse, and spouts all sorts of Libertarian views that both confuse (and sometimes frighten) mainstream Republicans, shouldn't have this kind of traction. But 2012 isn't a normal election year, folks. And I think that Paul's candidacy is seen by many as a godsend. His views and ideas, many of which sound downright insane to Liberals, are growing on the GOP. His often-calm, grandfatherly manner appeal to many at a time when the Extreme Right predicts Armageddon should the President be re-elected. His 2nd place finish in New Hampshire wasn't necessarily close but that, combined with the strong percentage of his Iowa showing renders him formidable. I expect him to place in the top three in South Carolina and in Florida as well. Paul might be a senior who has spent twenty-plus years in Congress, but he has Obamaesque youth support and a considerable chunk of change. Watch out for this guy...
Mitt Romney is not exciting, and that's why there are so many Democratic Party-like fractions within the Republican Party. Helpful endorsements from "establishment Republicans" and popular figures such as Gov. Chris Christie have helped the GOP get over "the Mormon thing" and make him seen more electable. Although Romney's undeniably moderate tenure as Massachusetts Governor and noticeable flip-flops are troublesome, he seems a safe, stable bet to a growing segment of Republicans. Comparatively speaking, Romney, his espoused beliefs, and bland, parsley-like personality seem reliable when other GOP candidates should be on "Jerry Springer" or "Girls Gone Wild". Mitt is a step above John McCain: not totally Conservative but not totally nuts, either. South Carolinians wont yell "Mitttt!" when he walks into rooms down there (think "Cheers") but he'll do much better in Florida. As long as he doesn't place fifth or six in either state, the Republican Party will settle on him. Depending on who he picks as a running mate, he may very well be the guest of honor at a few inaugural balls on January 20, 2013.
I don't rule out a thing.
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