The last time I was this disappointed with a Democratic leader took place
when, well, everyone else was annoyed also. Bill Clinton had taken the
country on a rather unpleasant roller coaster ride, and despite his
bewildering popularity, a lot of the electorate was pretty much over it.
Fast forward twelve years. Since my first election in that still-too-painful-
to-discuss 2000 race, I have consistently voted Democratic. Gore was
my choice the first time I voted for a president. In 2004, although I was
one of the many who "dated Dean and married Kerry", I still voted to put
the longtime Massachusetts senator in the White House. In 2008, I liked
the message and diversity of the young, charismatic Barack Obama--and
was pleased when he won the election.
Unfortunately, the President is losing me.
I want to clarify what that means, though. I still support President Obama.
I will never vote anyone into office whose platform remotely resembles
that of former President Bush's. Nevertheless, the Democrats in Congress
and the Administration have missed numerous chances to do the right
thing, and have instead focused on doing what is politically expedient. If
we were only playing politics, that would be admirable. The problem is that
the people who enthusiastically elected Illinois' junior senator expected
more than what they're getting. I'm talking about Liberals and Progressives;
those who almost took Obama's play book as something biblical.
I assume that we were an easy sell. Following the shady election in 2000,
we entered the Bush Administration already bitter and looking for revenge.
Pour out new wars, mix with an inadequate response to the biggest natural
disaster in U.S. history, add a sprinkle of the alienation of our World allies
and a generous serving of social Conservatism and voila!: a group, whom
after eight years--was glad that someone, anyone was paying attention to
them. When Conservative media outlets announced in barely-concealed
horror that Obama was the "most liberal member of the Senate", we, the
down-trodden squealed with delight. Finally--it was happening. Things were
going somewhere.
Not that they still can't. The President has two years left in his first term,
and a lot can happen in that time. But Barack Obama is allowing
Republicans, the very people who hated him to begin with, to define his
Presidency. In doing so, he is completely repulsing his Liberal base--the
people who stood behind him on his platform of a health care public option,
ending tax cuts for the wealthy and repealing "Don't Ask, Don't Tell." He
has caved to Republicans on all of these issues. And it is getting old.
Mr. President, I'm not asking for you to become a Miracle Worker. We did
have hope that things would be different when you entered the majestic
Oval Office, but most of us who use reasoning skills understand that not
everyone was on board with your plans from the very start.
These days, Mr. President, all we ask for is bold leadership. Take the
Democratic Party, known for its tendency to self-destruct due to lack of
unity, and do what we elected you to do. Stick to your guns. And if, as a
result, you meet the fate of Jimmy Carter and go down in flames as a one-
term President, we'll stand behind you. We'll support you, Mr. President,
because you'll have been defeated pushing for the Change that you
inspired us to believe. But if you stay on your current path of making
convenient decisions and caring more about shrewd moves than integrity,
I'm afraid that I'll have to go shopping for someone else to believe in.
And I doubt I will be alone.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Reach Out, Touch Faith.
In October 1991, I was formally baptized into the Southern Baptist
faith in the same church that my ancestors helped to establish some
100 years prior. I was two months shy of being ten years old.
Baptism is the spiritual rite of passage for Protestants. However, at
that time, for me, it was like buying those L.A. Gear sneakers that lit
up when you walked: you did it because everyone else was doing it.
And by October 1991, I really wanted to be baptized. Just months
earlier, I was probably the first (perhaps only) person in the history
of the church to be sent BACK down the aisle (for those of you
heathens, that means that the preacher didn't think I understood
what I was doing when I made my 'profession of faith'.) And although
the preacher--a kind, charismatic man adored by the congregation--
was right, it earned him the permanent disdain of my God-fearing
father, who was both outraged and more than likely a little
embarrassed. Even though my second trip down that aisle was much
more productive, it, too, should have probably never been condoned.
The years that followed at that church largely sucked. My brother and
I always felt like outcasts there; we either weren't 'country' enough or
caught hell (bad pun) from others by not having the skills to 'give it all
we had for the Lord' on the church basketball/softball teams. An over-
bearing youth minister who didn't seem to like youth was hired and
faith in the same church that my ancestors helped to establish some
100 years prior. I was two months shy of being ten years old.
Baptism is the spiritual rite of passage for Protestants. However, at
that time, for me, it was like buying those L.A. Gear sneakers that lit
up when you walked: you did it because everyone else was doing it.
And by October 1991, I really wanted to be baptized. Just months
earlier, I was probably the first (perhaps only) person in the history
of the church to be sent BACK down the aisle (for those of you
heathens, that means that the preacher didn't think I understood
what I was doing when I made my 'profession of faith'.) And although
the preacher--a kind, charismatic man adored by the congregation--
was right, it earned him the permanent disdain of my God-fearing
father, who was both outraged and more than likely a little
embarrassed. Even though my second trip down that aisle was much
more productive, it, too, should have probably never been condoned.
The years that followed at that church largely sucked. My brother and
I always felt like outcasts there; we either weren't 'country' enough or
caught hell (bad pun) from others by not having the skills to 'give it all
we had for the Lord' on the church basketball/softball teams. An over-
bearing youth minister who didn't seem to like youth was hired and
brought my differences to light. He was prone to humiliating the youth
publicly, and he took those in the church that I had known my entire
life into his corner. Instead of feeling God's love, I felt shamed.
Disgusted with the situation, I stayed long enough to watch his
resignation one Sunday--and soon afterwards wrote my own letter of
resignation to the church. It was read aloud in a post-service business
meeting, much to my parents' mortification. At just barely fourteen
years of age, it was my first real demonstration of independence.
Within two Sundays, I had joined the church down the street; a
Disciples of Christ (Christian) congregation. To this day, I'm still not
sure which was the bigger blow to my parents: coming out as Gay or
leaving the Southern Baptist faith.
With the exception of a mentally unstable preacher's wife who threw
the entire youth group out of the church, my experience at the
Disciples of Christ was very welcoming and good for me --if only in a
life into his corner. Instead of feeling God's love, I felt shamed.
Disgusted with the situation, I stayed long enough to watch his
resignation one Sunday--and soon afterwards wrote my own letter of
resignation to the church. It was read aloud in a post-service business
meeting, much to my parents' mortification. At just barely fourteen
years of age, it was my first real demonstration of independence.
Within two Sundays, I had joined the church down the street; a
Disciples of Christ (Christian) congregation. To this day, I'm still not
sure which was the bigger blow to my parents: coming out as Gay or
leaving the Southern Baptist faith.
With the exception of a mentally unstable preacher's wife who threw
the entire youth group out of the church, my experience at the
Disciples of Christ was very welcoming and good for me --if only in a
spiritually transitional way. When I first arrived, I discovered that I
could put my musical talents to use for God, and through lessons
became the church's organist--the same position held by my
grandmother for over thirty-five years. (Interestingly enough,
although Granny played the organ at the Christian Church every
Sunday, she was a lifelong member of and regularly gave offerings to
Sunday, she was a lifelong member of and regularly gave offerings to
the Baptist Church.) Still, even after becoming heavily involved in the
youth and musical aspects of the congregation, something was missing.
The words of the hymns and prayers held little meaning for me. After
leaving Waddy upon graduation, I quietly began to explore other faiths.
In the years that followed, I went through an enlightening period in
which I developed a form of beliefs that included a Higher Power, but
did not include Jesus Christ or a particular religion. By 2004, I had
politely rejected the Christianity of my upbringing, but still knew that
there was something greater out there than myself; that something/
someone is watching over me. I became content with my conviction
that hell and heaven are trials and triumphs on Earth. I got comfort in
believing that my God doesn't hate, doesn't require fear and loves
unconditionally, and that a big part of who and what I define as God
--lies in me. I started taking positive points from a multitude of
--lies in me. I started taking positive points from a multitude of
religions/ spiritualities (Quaker, Unity, Taoism, etc.) and ultimately
found my way to the Unitarian Church, a creedless faith which
subscribes to the same multitude of religions--but not one over
another. In taking from the ideas/beliefs of multiple faiths, I have
found a place where I am contented, comforted and allowed to be
curious.
Taking beliefs from different spiritualities/religions works for me.
Believing in a literal interpretation of the Bible works for many. And
Taking beliefs from different spiritualities/religions works for me.
Believing in a literal interpretation of the Bible works for many. And
there are some who get through Life through meditation and other
spiritual exercises. I'll never be one to tell anyone which path they
should follow. I can only relay my own experience: at the end of the
day, the Earth's constant changes and my own struggles somehow
seem easier--simply because I believe in something.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Post-Election Kudos, Fails & 8 Hours of CNN
As a parent would say, "...and what have you learned from this?"
Well, I spent the night with Anderson Cooper. (Okay, calm down,
guys and girls--I'm really at Chuck's.) But he was my host for no
fewer than eight hours (sad, right?) of election night coverage--
and the silver fox did a job most worthy of the son of Gloria
Vanderbilt. Through him, Wolf Blitzer's stuttering and the comical
appearance of former Gov.Eliot "Hot Pants" Spitzer, I reaffirmed
that CNN is my preferred network and online election source. Yay.
KUDOS: Nevada voters finally recognized that Sharron Angle
absorbs comprehension of the issues like a pretzel.
Mr. Reid goes back to Washington.
FAIL: Arizona elects Ben Quayle (R)--son of former VP and
poor speller Dan Quayle to Congress. Really?
KUDOS: Big loser Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) gives the most gracious
concession speech ever, especially considering that she
is a two-term Senator. Here's to class.
FAIL: The morons at the NRA for placing an initiative on ballots
called the "Right To Hunt" in AZ, AR, SC and TN. (It passed
in all but Arizona.)
KUDOS: The people of Colorado for not seeing the need to "Define
Personhood" in their Constitution.
FAIL: The voters of my native Kentucky for electing Rand Paul--
and, to be fair, an equally big FAIL to Jack Conway's shitty
race that made me ashamed to be a supporter.
KUDOS: To Delaware voters who have sense: thank you for not
electing non-sensical Tea Partier Christine O'Donnell.
FAIL: Meg Whitman, the CEO who spent $150 million of her
own money--and lost. Epic. Fail.
KUDOS: The "We're More Progressive Than You Might Think" city
of Lexington, Kentucky who turned a new page in politics
by firmly electing the openly gay Jim Gray as Mayor.
FAIL: Don't Ask, Don't Tell. With the House and Senate fighting
and a weakened president, it's back to the ol' drawing
board for a legislative repeal.
KUDOS: To CNN's Election Center for having really cool maps,
graphs, polls and all sorts of nerdy things.
WTF?: The citizens of Rhode Island for 1) having a measure asking
voters if they want to change the state's official name from
"State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations" to just
"Rhode Island" 2) 78% of voters saying NO?! You want that
long ass name? Realllly? So much for brevity.
Live from in front of the big screen in the Man Cave, it's your political
correspondent, Matt Spencer, signing off and urging you to remember,
in the words of Lenny Kravitz, that "It Ain't Over Til It's Over."
Well, I spent the night with Anderson Cooper. (Okay, calm down,
guys and girls--I'm really at Chuck's.) But he was my host for no
fewer than eight hours (sad, right?) of election night coverage--
and the silver fox did a job most worthy of the son of Gloria
Vanderbilt. Through him, Wolf Blitzer's stuttering and the comical
appearance of former Gov.Eliot "Hot Pants" Spitzer, I reaffirmed
that CNN is my preferred network and online election source. Yay.
KUDOS: Nevada voters finally recognized that Sharron Angle
absorbs comprehension of the issues like a pretzel.
Mr. Reid goes back to Washington.
FAIL: Arizona elects Ben Quayle (R)--son of former VP and
poor speller Dan Quayle to Congress. Really?
KUDOS: Big loser Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) gives the most gracious
concession speech ever, especially considering that she
is a two-term Senator. Here's to class.
FAIL: The morons at the NRA for placing an initiative on ballots
called the "Right To Hunt" in AZ, AR, SC and TN. (It passed
in all but Arizona.)
KUDOS: The people of Colorado for not seeing the need to "Define
Personhood" in their Constitution.
FAIL: The voters of my native Kentucky for electing Rand Paul--
and, to be fair, an equally big FAIL to Jack Conway's shitty
race that made me ashamed to be a supporter.
KUDOS: To Delaware voters who have sense: thank you for not
electing non-sensical Tea Partier Christine O'Donnell.
FAIL: Meg Whitman, the CEO who spent $150 million of her
own money--and lost. Epic. Fail.
KUDOS: The "We're More Progressive Than You Might Think" city
of Lexington, Kentucky who turned a new page in politics
by firmly electing the openly gay Jim Gray as Mayor.
FAIL: Don't Ask, Don't Tell. With the House and Senate fighting
and a weakened president, it's back to the ol' drawing
board for a legislative repeal.
KUDOS: To CNN's Election Center for having really cool maps,
graphs, polls and all sorts of nerdy things.
WTF?: The citizens of Rhode Island for 1) having a measure asking
voters if they want to change the state's official name from
"State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations" to just
"Rhode Island" 2) 78% of voters saying NO?! You want that
long ass name? Realllly? So much for brevity.
Live from in front of the big screen in the Man Cave, it's your political
correspondent, Matt Spencer, signing off and urging you to remember,
in the words of Lenny Kravitz, that "It Ain't Over Til It's Over."
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
1994 Part II? Not quite.
There just wasn't enough time to predict the House races. It took long
enough to research 37 Senate and 37 Gubernatorial races and give
predictions; figuring out how 435 U.S. Representatives might fare
would have required taking a full day off work.
The magic number is 218, folks. Pre-election numbers show a total
makeup of 256 Democrats and 179 Republicans. The GOP has only
39 seats to win in Congress before they take over. This is, as of this
writing, totally do-able and totally expected. I predict a Republican
takeover in Congress and that Democrats will just barely hold on to
the Senate.
I'm at peace with the whole thing.
People aren't always ready for change. And as we've seen, many
people fear it. But change doesn't go away. We are changing for the
better. Even though a large, scared group of voters may succeed at
blocking liberal and progressive ideals, they will fail at blocking
progress itself. Happens every time.
Do I absolutely love the Democratic leadership these days? Hell no.
Do I feel like I, as a Gay Man, have been backed over with a bus and
hit with a 2X4 by the President of the United States? Yes. But am I
abandoning the ship altogether? Am I starting to see some kind of
Republican wisdom? Absolutely not.
I, for one, refuse to go back to the days when the word 'terror' was all
we heard from our chief executive. I will not stand silently by and
allow my country to be taken over by those who would have us fenced
in like cattle or reduced to second-class citizenship. I will not allow
the Palins, Gingriches, Bachmanns and Bushes of the World to tell me
I'm 'un-American' simply because I'm open to learning more from
and giving out big ol' doses of respect to other cultures.
My party loses tonight for sure. And the discouragement of Democrats
all over might prompt more than one happily smug Tea Partier to say,
"America--love it or leave it." My response would be a little something
like this:
"Well, I love America too. And I'm sure as hell not leaving it to you."
enough to research 37 Senate and 37 Gubernatorial races and give
predictions; figuring out how 435 U.S. Representatives might fare
would have required taking a full day off work.
The magic number is 218, folks. Pre-election numbers show a total
makeup of 256 Democrats and 179 Republicans. The GOP has only
39 seats to win in Congress before they take over. This is, as of this
writing, totally do-able and totally expected. I predict a Republican
takeover in Congress and that Democrats will just barely hold on to
the Senate.
I'm at peace with the whole thing.
People aren't always ready for change. And as we've seen, many
people fear it. But change doesn't go away. We are changing for the
better. Even though a large, scared group of voters may succeed at
blocking liberal and progressive ideals, they will fail at blocking
progress itself. Happens every time.
Do I absolutely love the Democratic leadership these days? Hell no.
Do I feel like I, as a Gay Man, have been backed over with a bus and
hit with a 2X4 by the President of the United States? Yes. But am I
abandoning the ship altogether? Am I starting to see some kind of
Republican wisdom? Absolutely not.
I, for one, refuse to go back to the days when the word 'terror' was all
we heard from our chief executive. I will not stand silently by and
allow my country to be taken over by those who would have us fenced
in like cattle or reduced to second-class citizenship. I will not allow
the Palins, Gingriches, Bachmanns and Bushes of the World to tell me
I'm 'un-American' simply because I'm open to learning more from
and giving out big ol' doses of respect to other cultures.
My party loses tonight for sure. And the discouragement of Democrats
all over might prompt more than one happily smug Tea Partier to say,
"America--love it or leave it." My response would be a little something
like this:
"Well, I love America too. And I'm sure as hell not leaving it to you."
Monday, November 1, 2010
Governors Predictions
Alabama: Democrats ain't whistlin' Dixie anymore; State Rep. Robert
Bentley (R) defeats Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks (D)--55%-45%Alaska: Palin replacement Sean Parnell (R) elected in his own right
over former State Rep. Ethan Berkowitz (D)--59%-41%
Arizona: Don't-Cross-The-Border Gov. Jan Brewer (R) declares
victory over AZ Attorney General Terry Goddard (D)--54%-46%
Arkansas: Democrats hold on here as incumbent Gov. Mike Beebe
soundly defeats former State Sen. Jim Keet (R)--60%-40%
California: A HUGE personal loan doesn't help Meg Whitman (R), as she
narrowly loses to decades-ago Gov. Jerry Brown (D)--51%-49%
Colorado: Scary fanatical Tom Tancredo (ACP) barely loses out to
Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D), while campaign finance
offender Dan Maes (R) takes 3rd place--49%-44%-7%
offender Dan Maes (R) takes 3rd place--49%-44%-7%
Connecticut: Former Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) suffers defeat
by former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley (R)--50.8%-49.2%
Florida: In 2000-esque results, Florida CFO Alex Sink (D) beats out
Rick Scott (R), becoming FL's first woman governor--50.3%-49.7%
Georgia: Some voters can't forgive ex-Gov. Roy Barnes' (D) decision
to change the flag; he loses out to U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal (R), with
John Monds (L) in distant 3rd--51%-45%-4%Hawaii: Longtime U.S. Rep Neil Abercrombie (D) barely defeats
Lt. Governor Duke Aiona (R)--52%-48%
Idaho: Keith Allred (D) loses out to incumbent Gov. Butch Otter
(R) with an unsurprising margin--57%-43%
Illinois: Over the Blagejovich mess, Prairie State voters toss former
Lt. Gov (now Gov.) Pat Quinn (D) for State Sen. Bill Brady (R).
Green Party's Rich Whitney gets 3rd--49%-47%-4%Iowa: Hawkeye voters long for the past, returning popular 1983-99
Gov. Terry Branstad (R), ditching Gov. Chet Culver (D)--56%-44%
Kansas: Current Sen. Sam Brownback (R) leaves D.C. for the Gov's
Mansion, soundly defeating State Sen. Tom Holland (D)--61%-39%
Maine: A crowded race has State Sen. Libby Mitchell (D) falling into
3rd behind runner-up Eliot Cutler (I) and Waterville Mayor Paul
LePage (R)--39%-33%-28%Maryland: Incumbent Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) gives predecessor Bob Ehrlich (R) a second defeat--54%-46%
Massachusetts: MA Treasurer Tim Cahill (I) takes 3rd, while CharlieBaker (R) is runner-up to incumbent Gov. Deval Patrick--47%-44%-9%
Michigan: Hardest recession-hit state elects businessman Rick Snyder (R) over Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero--55%-45%
Minnesota: Ex-U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (DFL) elected narrowly overState Rep. Tom Emmer (R) and 3rd place Tom Horner (I)--45%-43%-12%
Nebraska: Popular Gov. Dave Heineman (R) wins in landslide victory
over attorney Mike Meister (D)--75%-25%Nevada: Rory Reid (D) wishes his last name wasn't so toxic, as Rory (son of Harry) is handily defeated by U.S. Judge Brian Sandoval (R)--58%-42%
New Hampshire: Incumbent Gov. John Lynch (D), never losing in pollsto attorney John Stephen (R), wins a second term--54%-46%
New Mexico: Lt. Governor Diane Denish (D) suffers defeat at the hands of
District Attorney Susana Martinez (R)--54%-46%New York: Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) wins handily over businessman Carl Paladino (R)--61%-39%
Ohio: Campaigning by Obama wont help incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D)as he suffers narrow loss to ex-U.S. Rep. John Kasich (R)--50.5%-49.5%
Oklahoma: U.S. Rep. Mary Fallin (R) leaves D.C. for Oklahoma City as she whoops Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D)--61%-39%
Oregon: Ex-NBA'er Chris Dudley becomes state's first Republican gov in 20+ years when he defeats former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D)--51.7%-50.3%
Pennsylvania: Alleghany Co. Exec. Dan Onorato (D) is defeated by Penn. Attorney General Tom Corbett (R)--53%-47%
Rhode Island: Ex. U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chaffee (I) defeats John Robitaille (R)and Frank "shove it" Caprio (D) gets 3rd place--38%-35%-29%
South Carolina: Nasty race ends as State Rep. Nikki Haley (R) becomes SC's first woman gov, defeating State Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D)--53%-46%
South Dakota: Boring night in Pierre; Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) over- whelmingly elected over State. Sen. Scott Heidepriem--57%-43%
Tennessee: Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) soundly elected over Mike McWherter (D)--58%-42%
Texas: Former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) is defeated in his attempt to
unseat longest-serving Gov. Rick Perry (R)--55%-45%
Utah: Why do we even poll here? Current Gov. (and Mormon, imagine that)
Gary Herbert easily trumps Salt Lake Mayor Peter Corroon--62%-38%
Vermont: Quiet race ends as State Sen. Peter Shumlin (D) narrowly
edges out Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R)--52%-48%
Wisconsin: Not a good state for Democrats these days, as Milwaukee Mayor
Tom Barrett loses to County Exec. Scott Walker (R)--54%-46%
Wyoming: In another "why bother?" race, Democratic State Party Chair
Leslie Petersen loses big to ex-U.S. Attorney Matt Mead (R)--68%-32%
PREDICTION:
37 Gubernatorial races=
25 Republican Victories
12 Democratic Victories
CURRENT GOVERNORS BALANCE: 26 Democrats 23 Republicans 1 Independent
NEW GOVERNORS BALANCE: 18 Democrats 31 Republicans 1 Independent
Next: Very Few House Races/Concluding Thoughts
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Senate Predictions
Alabama: No sweat for long-time Sen. Richard Shelby (R), easily
defeating William Barnes (D)—70%-30%.
Alaska: Joe Miller (R) finishes 3rd due to sloppiness, giving a surprising
political comeback for incumbent Lisa Murkowski (Write-In); 2nd
place goes to Scott McAdams (D)--39%-33%-28%.
Arizona: Former Pres. candidate John McCain (R) wins an easy fifth
term over prettyboy Rodney Glassman (D)--62%-38%.
Arkansas: Incumbent Blanche Lincoln (D) will go down in flames against
John Boozman (R)--58%-42%.
California: Barbara Boxer (D) wins a fourth term in the toughest fight
of her political life against ex-CEO Carly Fiorina (R)--52%-48%.
Colorado: Incumbent Michael Bennet (D) suffers very tight loss to
Ken Buck (R). Watch for a recount here, folks.--50.6-50.4%.
Connecticut: Despite massive bucks spent, ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon
(R) gets 'knocked out' by Richard Blumenthal (D)--56%-44%.
Delaware: The First State gets tired of the negative attention and elects
Chris Coons (D) over PR nightmare Christine O'Donnell (R)--55%-45%.
Florida: Gov. Charlie Crist (I) starts packing for nowhere, as he and 3rd
place Kendrick Meek (D) lose to Marco Rubio (R)—44%-36%-20%.
Georgia: Incumbent Johnny Isakson (R) has folks wondering about
the reason for the race, crushing Mike Thurmond (D)--65%-35%.
Hawaii: Longest-serving Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) safely re-elected to
ninth term over Republican Campbell Cavasso (R)--59%-41%.
Idaho: Tom Sullivan (D) never had a chance against Mormon incumbent
Mike Crapo (R)--67%-33%.
Illinois: A very close race ends on a good note for Mark Kirk (R), barely
edging out IL Treasury Secretary Alexi Giannoulias (D)--51%-49%.
Indiana: Ex. Senator Dan Coats (R) is overwhelmingly welcomed back
by Hoosiers, defeating U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D)--60%-40%.
Iowa: Incumbent Chuck Grassley (R) is returned to the Senate by Iowans
against Roxanne Conlin (D)—57%-43%.
Kansas: Crickets chirping at the headquarters of Lisa Johnston (D), as she
is massacred by U.S. Rep. Jerry Moran (R)--64%-36%.
Kentucky: Nasty campaign ends as Tea Party scores a victory with
Rand Paul (R) over Attorney General Jack Conway (D)--54%-46%.
Louisiana: Scandalous or not, incumbent David Vitter (R) scores a
second term over U.S. Rep. Charlie Melancon (D)--57%-43%.
Maryland: Satisfied voters return the feisty Barbara Mikulski (D) to
D.C. over Eric Wargotz (R) with a whopping--63%-37%.
Missouri: U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt (R) moves up the political ladder, as
Robin Carnahan (D) stays on as Missouri Sec. of State--53%-47%.
Nevada: In a very bizarre race, Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D)
barely wins over nut job Sharron Angle (R)--50.5%--49.5%.
New Hampshire: This quiet race has U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes (D) losing out
to former NH Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R). --56%-44%.
New York: Incumbent Chuck Schumer (D) wins an easy third term
over virtually unknown Jay Townsend (R)--66%-34%.
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand (D) keeps Hillary's old seat Female and
Democratic, with a wide win over ex-U.S. Rep Joe DioGuardi--57%-43%.
North Carolina: The underfunded Elaine Marshall (D) is passed over for
incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R). --57%-43%.
North Dakota: Most popular U.S. Gov. John Hoeven (R) wins the
popularity contest by a landslide over Tracy Potter (D). – 71%-29%.
Ohio: The Buckeye State stays Republican as former Bush official Rob
Portman has decisive victory over Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D)—55%-45%.
Oklahoma: Tom Coburn (R) returns to the Senate over the laughable
Jim Rogers (D), who has no campaign website—76%-24%.
Oregon: Liberal Ron Wyden (D) stays comfortable, retaining his seat
against challenger Jim Huffman (R) –61%-39%.
Pennsylvania: This hot race ends with Pat Toomey (R) narrowly edging
out U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak (D)—51%-49%.
South Carolina: Jim DeMint (R) easily keeps his seat after the bizarre
candidacy of Alvin Greene (D)—76%-24%.
South Dakota: Incumbent John Thune (R) must be one hell of a senator,
considering he has zero Democratic opposition. Wow.
Utah: Mike Lee (R) has an easy victory over businessman Sam Granato (D)
in this safely Republican state—59%-41%.
Vermont: Unknown challenger Len Britton (R) is no match for Vermont’s
high-approval Sen. Patrick Leahy (D)—69%-31%.
Washington: Dino Rossi (R) fails again in his third state-wide election, but
gives incumbent Patty Murray (D) a run for her money—50.8%-49.2%.
West Virginia: Mountain State voters can’t let this one go GOP, electing the
popular Gov. Joe Manchin (D) over John Raese (R)—52%-48%.
Wisconsin: The Senate loses a liberal voice in Russ Feingold (D), as he goes
down against Tea Party-endorsed Ron Johnson (R)—53%-47%.
PREDICTION:
37 U.S. Senate races=
25 Republican Victories
12 Democratic Victories
CURRENT SENATE BALANCE: 59 Democrats 41 Republicans
NEW SENATE BALANCE: 52 Democrats 48 Republicans
Next: Governors Races
defeating William Barnes (D)—70%-30%.
Alaska: Joe Miller (R) finishes 3rd due to sloppiness, giving a surprising
political comeback for incumbent Lisa Murkowski (Write-In); 2nd
place goes to Scott McAdams (D)--39%-33%-28%.
Arizona: Former Pres. candidate John McCain (R) wins an easy fifth
term over prettyboy Rodney Glassman (D)--62%-38%.
Arkansas: Incumbent Blanche Lincoln (D) will go down in flames against
John Boozman (R)--58%-42%.
California: Barbara Boxer (D) wins a fourth term in the toughest fight
of her political life against ex-CEO Carly Fiorina (R)--52%-48%.
Colorado: Incumbent Michael Bennet (D) suffers very tight loss to
Ken Buck (R). Watch for a recount here, folks.--50.6-50.4%.
Connecticut: Despite massive bucks spent, ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon
(R) gets 'knocked out' by Richard Blumenthal (D)--56%-44%.
Delaware: The First State gets tired of the negative attention and elects
Chris Coons (D) over PR nightmare Christine O'Donnell (R)--55%-45%.
Florida: Gov. Charlie Crist (I) starts packing for nowhere, as he and 3rd
place Kendrick Meek (D) lose to Marco Rubio (R)—44%-36%-20%.
Georgia: Incumbent Johnny Isakson (R) has folks wondering about
the reason for the race, crushing Mike Thurmond (D)--65%-35%.
Hawaii: Longest-serving Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) safely re-elected to
ninth term over Republican Campbell Cavasso (R)--59%-41%.
Idaho: Tom Sullivan (D) never had a chance against Mormon incumbent
Mike Crapo (R)--67%-33%.
Illinois: A very close race ends on a good note for Mark Kirk (R), barely
edging out IL Treasury Secretary Alexi Giannoulias (D)--51%-49%.
Indiana: Ex. Senator Dan Coats (R) is overwhelmingly welcomed back
by Hoosiers, defeating U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D)--60%-40%.
Iowa: Incumbent Chuck Grassley (R) is returned to the Senate by Iowans
against Roxanne Conlin (D)—57%-43%.
Kansas: Crickets chirping at the headquarters of Lisa Johnston (D), as she
is massacred by U.S. Rep. Jerry Moran (R)--64%-36%.
Kentucky: Nasty campaign ends as Tea Party scores a victory with
Rand Paul (R) over Attorney General Jack Conway (D)--54%-46%.
Louisiana: Scandalous or not, incumbent David Vitter (R) scores a
second term over U.S. Rep. Charlie Melancon (D)--57%-43%.
Maryland: Satisfied voters return the feisty Barbara Mikulski (D) to
D.C. over Eric Wargotz (R) with a whopping--63%-37%.
Missouri: U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt (R) moves up the political ladder, as
Robin Carnahan (D) stays on as Missouri Sec. of State--53%-47%.
Nevada: In a very bizarre race, Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D)
barely wins over nut job Sharron Angle (R)--50.5%--49.5%.
New Hampshire: This quiet race has U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes (D) losing out
to former NH Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R). --56%-44%.
New York: Incumbent Chuck Schumer (D) wins an easy third term
over virtually unknown Jay Townsend (R)--66%-34%.
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand (D) keeps Hillary's old seat Female and
Democratic, with a wide win over ex-U.S. Rep Joe DioGuardi--57%-43%.
North Carolina: The underfunded Elaine Marshall (D) is passed over for
incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R). --57%-43%.
North Dakota: Most popular U.S. Gov. John Hoeven (R) wins the
popularity contest by a landslide over Tracy Potter (D). – 71%-29%.
Ohio: The Buckeye State stays Republican as former Bush official Rob
Portman has decisive victory over Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D)—55%-45%.
Oklahoma: Tom Coburn (R) returns to the Senate over the laughable
Jim Rogers (D), who has no campaign website—76%-24%.
Oregon: Liberal Ron Wyden (D) stays comfortable, retaining his seat
against challenger Jim Huffman (R) –61%-39%.
Pennsylvania: This hot race ends with Pat Toomey (R) narrowly edging
out U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak (D)—51%-49%.
South Carolina: Jim DeMint (R) easily keeps his seat after the bizarre
candidacy of Alvin Greene (D)—76%-24%.
South Dakota: Incumbent John Thune (R) must be one hell of a senator,
considering he has zero Democratic opposition. Wow.
Utah: Mike Lee (R) has an easy victory over businessman Sam Granato (D)
in this safely Republican state—59%-41%.
Vermont: Unknown challenger Len Britton (R) is no match for Vermont’s
high-approval Sen. Patrick Leahy (D)—69%-31%.
Washington: Dino Rossi (R) fails again in his third state-wide election, but
gives incumbent Patty Murray (D) a run for her money—50.8%-49.2%.
West Virginia: Mountain State voters can’t let this one go GOP, electing the
popular Gov. Joe Manchin (D) over John Raese (R)—52%-48%.
Wisconsin: The Senate loses a liberal voice in Russ Feingold (D), as he goes
down against Tea Party-endorsed Ron Johnson (R)—53%-47%.
PREDICTION:
37 U.S. Senate races=
25 Republican Victories
12 Democratic Victories
CURRENT SENATE BALANCE: 59 Democrats 41 Republicans
NEW SENATE BALANCE: 52 Democrats 48 Republicans
Next: Governors Races
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Predictions, Probabilities and Perfect Weather
As I age and become more attuned to politics and my own well-
being, I will attempt to spare myself epic disappointment on
Tuesday, November 2nd, by issuing my first-ever predictions
for a mid-term election. It's better this way.
It should be noted first and foremost that I am probably not in
the best frame of mind to make these guesses, despite how
educated they may be. As a political junkie in 2010, I have found
myself surrounded by one of the most mean-spirited campaign
bloodbaths I have ever seen (and my first presidential election
was Bush vs. Gore!) Getting to this point has been brutal for just
about everyone: the voter, the media (who do you think spends
so much time spinning this crap?!) and I'm sure--the candidates
themselves. Yet, I personally have a difficult time preparing
myself for the 'night of nights' due to my growing disenchantment
with the Democratic Party.
Since climbing back to the top of the Congressional mountain in
'06, Democratic performance has been very disappointing, from
the Party's lack of balls while George W. Bush lived out his lame-
duck existence to not being able to properly explain a health care
bill that actually holds promise for the country. If that weren't
enough, our Democratic leaders in Congress and--yes--our very
own President, continues to nibble (if not bite) the hand that feeds
them. As a Gay Liberal, I am very disappointed that the judicial
verdict of repealing "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" has been appealed by
the Obama Administration--the very group of people who not only
supported, but promised the repeal of the ridiculous law. While the
issue of DADT pales greatly in comparison to the economy, it is just
one more testimony of how Democrats have offended not only their
progressive members, but countless moderates as well, by appearing
weak and off-message. The whole thing makes me sick. Still, I'll vote
Democratic on Tuesday. And I'll do so because although Tea Party/
Republican candidates make some sense when complaining about
the lack of Democratic strength, their complaints certainly don't
imply any new ideas. The "Party of NO" is still alive and well, and I'm
not about to trade progress (however small) for moral pandering and
a return to the blatant arrogance and lack of domestic investment of
the Bush era. I'm resentful but not stupid: the grass is no greener on
the other side. With the Republican Party's environmental stances,
I'd be surprised if there was grass at all.
My predictions will be found in the next few entries. I wont attempt
to predict most House campaign (there are 435 of them!) but the
Senate and Governors races will be captured. I have developed these
guesses from MONTHS of viewing polls, campaign ads and reading
about the candidates. The biggest factor in my predictions, though,
has little to do with funds raised or polls, but more to do with the
political ideology and mood of the state and/or district. Projected
winning candidates will appear in bold form; margins appearing in
red (of course). These guesses have a 99-100% margin of error. ;)
Enjoy.
Get out to the polls on Tuesday, November 2nd, a day forecasted as
being 'partly cloudy.'
Oh, the irony.
being, I will attempt to spare myself epic disappointment on
Tuesday, November 2nd, by issuing my first-ever predictions
for a mid-term election. It's better this way.
It should be noted first and foremost that I am probably not in
the best frame of mind to make these guesses, despite how
educated they may be. As a political junkie in 2010, I have found
myself surrounded by one of the most mean-spirited campaign
bloodbaths I have ever seen (and my first presidential election
was Bush vs. Gore!) Getting to this point has been brutal for just
about everyone: the voter, the media (who do you think spends
so much time spinning this crap?!) and I'm sure--the candidates
themselves. Yet, I personally have a difficult time preparing
myself for the 'night of nights' due to my growing disenchantment
with the Democratic Party.
Since climbing back to the top of the Congressional mountain in
'06, Democratic performance has been very disappointing, from
the Party's lack of balls while George W. Bush lived out his lame-
duck existence to not being able to properly explain a health care
bill that actually holds promise for the country. If that weren't
enough, our Democratic leaders in Congress and--yes--our very
own President, continues to nibble (if not bite) the hand that feeds
them. As a Gay Liberal, I am very disappointed that the judicial
verdict of repealing "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" has been appealed by
the Obama Administration--the very group of people who not only
supported, but promised the repeal of the ridiculous law. While the
issue of DADT pales greatly in comparison to the economy, it is just
one more testimony of how Democrats have offended not only their
progressive members, but countless moderates as well, by appearing
weak and off-message. The whole thing makes me sick. Still, I'll vote
Democratic on Tuesday. And I'll do so because although Tea Party/
Republican candidates make some sense when complaining about
the lack of Democratic strength, their complaints certainly don't
imply any new ideas. The "Party of NO" is still alive and well, and I'm
not about to trade progress (however small) for moral pandering and
a return to the blatant arrogance and lack of domestic investment of
the Bush era. I'm resentful but not stupid: the grass is no greener on
the other side. With the Republican Party's environmental stances,
I'd be surprised if there was grass at all.
My predictions will be found in the next few entries. I wont attempt
to predict most House campaign (there are 435 of them!) but the
Senate and Governors races will be captured. I have developed these
guesses from MONTHS of viewing polls, campaign ads and reading
about the candidates. The biggest factor in my predictions, though,
has little to do with funds raised or polls, but more to do with the
political ideology and mood of the state and/or district. Projected
winning candidates will appear in bold form; margins appearing in
red (of course). These guesses have a 99-100% margin of error. ;)
Enjoy.
Get out to the polls on Tuesday, November 2nd, a day forecasted as
being 'partly cloudy.'
Oh, the irony.
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