Perhaps you should stick with Politico.com or a well-known poll if you want predictions of correct election results. True, my 58% accurate prediction rate implies that I got more right than wrong, but in school, 58% earns a student an 'F'. Reminds me of high school Algebra classes. Anyway...
My foremost prediction that Super Tuesday wouldn't clear up a darned thing--was absolutely right. No one really came out of last night's ten primaries/caucuses as the winner. On the surface, Mitt Romney picked up six states, Santorum came away with three and Gingrich won his home state of Georgia (which, I must admit--is not Newt's native state like I previously alleged. He was actually born in PA.) Still, the victory margins weren't what they needed to be--especially for front-runner Mitt.
Last night's surprises included Romney's win in Alaska, even if it wasn't by much. Ron Paul garnered 24% of the vote there, compared to Santorum's 29%--and I thought Paul would've fared better in the Last Frontier.
Santorum surprised me by not doing better in Georgia, where I figured his socially conservative message would've held more sway. (Still, he is a Yankee.) Romney came in 2nd place here, but with Gingrich's 21% victory margin, I wouldn't call it a competitive race.
Ohio was a rough call to make, but just as in neighboring Michigan, Romney has no reason to be cocky. He won by 1%. Romney did well with urban/suburban Republicans, but the Buckeye State results add to the trend of his inability to connect with the rural voter.
Yet, I didn't expect Romney to do as well as he did in Tennessee. Sure, he lost 1st place by a 9% margin, but his 2nd place win over Newt's speaks to growing problems for Gingrich. The one Tennessee county that Gingrich won neighbors his former Congressional district in Georgia.
Romney's problems with rural voters extended to western Virginia, where Ron Paul won five counties--some by handy margins. Romney's 60% to Paul's 40% may seem like overwhelming support for Mitt, but I question whether Romney would've won VA at all had Gingrich and Santorum gotten their act together in time to qualify for the ballot. 40% of the vote is a lot for a candidate like Paul, who usually receives 25% at best.
Santorum has demonstrated that he will continue to be a pain in the ass for Front-Runner Mitt and Crusader Gingrich. Both of these candidates--especially Gingrich--should out-maneuver Santorum as much as possible in the upcoming states of Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Illinois and Louisiana. At least one candidate needs to withdraw his candidacy in the next few weeks, or the GOP faces some serious problems. I continue to predict that Newt will be the first to go. If he can't win or do well in any of those states, he'll have no chance for recovery in April, a month dominated by primaries/caucuses in the North and West that will favor Romney or Santorum.
Still, no one wants to be the April Fool.
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