Several weeks ago, I made some predictions on the Republican Presidential primary battle. Most of them proved questionable, at best. For example, if things had gone the way I predicted, Rick Santorum would be writing his memoirs and keeping up with his five kids in Pennsylvania and not criss-crossing the country with growing support. I told you to watch out for Ron Paul. Although the Texas Congressman has yet to win a single primary, some of his recent placement has been respectable. I advised you to monitor the rise of Newt Gingrich, who has nearly disappeared from the race.
Still, I didn't do half-bad at being the Miss Cleo of American presidential politics. I predicted that Romney will be the 'eventual nominee', and he continues to be the front-runner, picking up meaningful endorsements and delegates. I predicted that Rick Perry would do well as long as he kept his mouth shut. Perry turned into an inarticulate yutz and we no longer have to worry about Round Two: Texas Governor in the White House.
Politics is not easy to digest and is even more uncomfortable to predict. As we've seen with the rise and falls of Sarah Palin and Herman Cain: anything can happen (and not happen.) But as long as there are educated, professional politicians, there will be educated, professional advisers, pollsters and psychics.
Super Tuesday is upon us. Since 1984, it has been a climactic, deciding moment in Presidential politics. Unfortunately, no one thinks that the ten states holding Republican caucuses/primaries that day will confirm much of anything this year. Think of Super Tuesday in a Groundhog's Day mentality: unless one nominee does great that day and everyone else eventually drops out, you'll have to put up with six-plus more weeks of crap. Onward with predictions. Do not be afraid: you will not be charged $1.99 per minute:
Alaska just might be the site of a first win for Ron Paul. If not Paul, Santorum wins here.
Georgia loves Newt--and likes Santorum. Look for Romney to do poorly in the Peach State.
Idaho Mormons will support Romney and win the state for him. Paul will do nicely here as well.
Massachusetts will come out in support of ex-Gov. Mitt. Santorum gets a very distant 2nd.
North Dakota gives a shout-out to Santorum. Romney in 2nd place--not sure how distant.
Ohio is a tough, but vital nut to crack. I predict a hair-splitting win for Santorum. Think Iowa.
Oklahoma gives 1st place to Santorum. Gingrich might not be far off here.
Tennessee goes for Santorum with Newt possibly placing 2nd.
Vermont rallies for its New England neighbor Romney. Santorum finishes a distant 2nd.
Virginia unenthusiastically goes for Romney, since Gingrich and Santorum failed to get on the ballot.
"So what does it all mean?", you ask? It means that someone needs to drop the hell out. Romney will have plenty of reasons (namely Idaho, Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia) to crack open a nice bottled water since he theologically can't have any caffeine. Still, victories in other places (North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma and Tennessee) will prompt Santorum to sit back and enjoy a can of Dr. Pepper or whatever he does for fun (I can't imagine.) The only revelations that political junkies like myself will gleam from Tuesday night's results are bigger insights on who needs to drop out and how quickly they need to do it.
Newt's got problems. Santorum is majorly tapping into an electorate that Gingrich has been depending on ever since he declared his candicacy. Newt's second place in Tennessee won't look good and if he places third, his campaign will need to think about calling in a priest to perform the last rites. Newt's performance in Georgia will also be telling: he needs a solid victory to win his native state. If Santorum gets more than 20% of the vote in Georgia, Newt will seriously need to consider calling it quits. After Tuesday, Newt's chances depend solely on the South, and if Santorum wins--or even does well--in the upcoming states of Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, Newt will be finished by the first of April.
One final prediction: this race will not go to the Convention. Media hype loves to drag it out, but people-in-the-political-know understand that the longer they argue, the more fractured and disorganized they appear. The last time that a fight went all the way to the Convention was in 1976 when incumbent President Ford just barely squeaked by the challenge of then-former California Governor Reagan. The result? Democrat Jimmy Carter's inauguration in 1977.
That should be enough to scare the GOP into figuring this out.
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