An Obama Victory: OBAMA-297 vs. ROMNEY-241 (270 Electoral Votes Needed)
So, this is my prediction of the President's victory map. For those of you who aren't politically interested, a) why are you reading this? and b) the red color indicates a state which will cast its electoral votes for Romney. Blue indicates votes for Obama.
The Left Coast remains in the Obama camp, even if progressives weren't so sure for a time that the President was progressive enough.
Blue Western States include Colorado and New Mexico. Colorado's larger-than-average Mormon population is likely no match for its larger progressive community, including Denver and Boulder. Obama carried New Mexico by 15% in '08. I look for him to carry it by half as much this time around.
Great Lakes are mostly smooth sailing for the President in a winning scenario. An Obama victory in Michigan would be unsurprising. The GOP will probably stay home, as they didn't seem to be too crazy about Romney in his native state's primary. Wisconsin poses the biggest threat for Obama, with the overall state support of its controversial Republican governor and the fact that it's home to VP-nominee Paul Ryan. Watch the Badger State.
The Midwest includes a very narrow victory for the President in Ohio and a respectable but smaller-than-last-time win in his home state of Illinois. I think that the President stands a strong chance of losing Iowa. We'll see.
North Atlantic States will all go for the President. New Hampshire has been mentioned as a toss-up, as Romney has a home there and it is probably the most conservative of the New England States. Still, the President won it by nearly 10% in '08. His victory margin there this time will likely be closer to 3%.
*Disagreements with this analysis? Please comment. I'd love to hear your thoughts--especially if you live in a state where you think that a different outcome will take place.*
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