Crunch Time: An Introduction

With ten weeks until the U.S. presidential election, I think it's time for me to do what 'eventual nominee' Mitt Romney said regarding Senator Reid's claim that he hadn't paid income taxes for several years: "put up or shut up."

As my election analysis accuracy rate is just below a dismal 60%, I have limited credibility when it comes to predicting results. With very little to lose other than my dignity (who needs that, anyway?), I predicted that President Obama would be given his pink slip on November 6th. This prediction was made in September of last year, not out of a desire to see Obama defeated, but instead from my own need to avoid heartbreak when it actually happens.

(When Bush vs. Gore is your very first presidential election, you immediately learn to dismiss optimism in politics.)

Much has changed in the political landscape since September. The Republican scare tactics surrounding 'Obamacare' have run their course: Americans are anticipating the benefits from the program. Most everyone agrees that the economy is slowly (the term 'snail's pace' comes to mind) making progress. While the country isn't ready to give Obama credit for turning things around, most continue to recognize that he inherited the mess, a fact that Republicans just absolutely hate. The question: are these factors enough to forecast that the President will resume his job duties? The answer: no. But the odds are in his favor. Still, I am not changing my prediction. To do so and wind up with an Obama defeat may cause me significant heart damage, and I already have enough genetic reasons to be worried about that.

A lot could happen in the next two months, folks. There have been no debates yet, the RNC continues to rake up large amounts of dough and there's plenty of time for an "October surprise" from either side. So, instead of changing my overall forecast, I'll predict how the map will look either way on November 6th.

Presenting, for your interest and amusement, the next two blogs:

Crunch Time: Barack My World--Again
Crunch Time: The Mittiest of Victories