Sports lovers and bored people alike will be watching the University of Kentucky and the University of Louisville's men's basketball teams as they face off in the Final Four in New Orleans this coming Saturday. For most viewers nationwide, this will be an interesting game to watch as both UK and UofL are located in the same state. Those of us who live in Kentucky, however, do not only find it 'interesting'.
We find it a little frightening.
The largest universities in our fair state have never played each other in this tournament, so it's a very big deal. Non-Kentucky residents across the country will be sitting in New Orleans and in front of their televisions, enjoying a game and thinking nothing of the consequences of victory. Yet, because "fan" is short for "fanatic", Bluegrass State residents are nervously preparing for the following:
-Vandalism reports will increase 1200% statewide--from the previous day.
-More health insurance claims will be filed Saturday--than on July 4th.
-Kentucky employers will see increases in verbal altercations in the workplace.
-UK supporters living in Louisville will suffer from societal withdrawal, as will
the three or four UofL supporters residing in Lexington.
This brings me to my point. To those non-Kentucky resident game viewers, this first time ever battle may seem like a normal Final Four skirmish. And they couldn't be further from the truth. This game isn't about the six or seven foot something or-other mammoth guys running around on a floor, dribbling a ball. This game underscores a battle that has been going on for no fewer than two centuries. This, my friends, is the Battle of The City of Lexington vs. The City of Louisville.
Kentucky's two largest cities have never gotten along. Ask lifelong Louisvillians about their neighbor to the east, and they'll imply that she's a whiny, uppity, spoiled-rotten child who wont shut up. Ask lifelong Lexingtonians about their neighbor to the west and they'll imply that she's a loud, trashy skank who can't even pronounce her own name correctly. To some effect, they're both right.
The cities are as different as day and night. I was surprised to learn that, in 1958, Lexington enacted the nation's first ever Urban Growth Boundary, creating an abrupt end to construction and industry where horse pastures and plank fencing begin. Louisville, on the other hand, sprawled out in all directions. Louisville dealt with its congestion in the 1970s and 80s by building and expanding the Gene Snyder Freeway, which makes getting around the city relatively easy. "The Ville" probably learned something from Lexington, whose notorious 1960s New Circle Road construction--was, in my father's words, a "monument to poor urban planning." (A big part of New Circle Road bypasses absolutely nothing.) Lexington/Fayette County's 1974 merger was ahead of its time. The merger of Louisville and Jefferson County didn't happen until a quarter of a century later. Louisville likes to pride itself on its nightlife and often flashy, usually expensive structures and publicly-funded projects, while Lexington prefers you to find a nice glass of sweet tea, look at the horses and enjoy the fact that you're less likely to get murdered or burglarized there. These differences--some small, some large--have made their way onto the basketball court.
If you don't believe me, take into account the public perception of Coach Rick Pitino, who, from 1989-97, coached UK men's basketball. When he coached the Cats, he was Saint Rick to Lexingtonians and an Italian Hitler to Louisvillians. Fast-forward to 2001 when he began coaching at UofL. Suddenly, Pitino was the anti-Christ and no longer welcome in Lexington--while he was practically given the key to the city of Louisville (perhaps he was, I don't know. He was certainly given a nice, secluded booth at one of our local restaurants. Ouch. Moving on...)
On Saturday, this native Kentuckian proudly supports the greatest basketball team in Kentucky: both of them. I am part of an unnoticed but very large group of citizens who likes the fact that for one brief, shining moment, Kentucky gets recognition for something positive, instead of being known for having some of the poorest counties in the U.S. and being one of the fattest, most 'smoky' (and we're not talking barbecue) states in the country. We don't care which team claims victory; we view it as a small victory for Kentucky. Call us a majority of the 'silent' type, if you will.
The die-hard fans of the winning/losing teams on Saturday will be anything but.
Monday, March 26, 2012
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Analyzing Super Tuesday...and keeping my day job.
Perhaps you should stick with Politico.com or a well-known poll if you want predictions of correct election results. True, my 58% accurate prediction rate implies that I got more right than wrong, but in school, 58% earns a student an 'F'. Reminds me of high school Algebra classes. Anyway...
My foremost prediction that Super Tuesday wouldn't clear up a darned thing--was absolutely right. No one really came out of last night's ten primaries/caucuses as the winner. On the surface, Mitt Romney picked up six states, Santorum came away with three and Gingrich won his home state of Georgia (which, I must admit--is not Newt's native state like I previously alleged. He was actually born in PA.) Still, the victory margins weren't what they needed to be--especially for front-runner Mitt.
Last night's surprises included Romney's win in Alaska, even if it wasn't by much. Ron Paul garnered 24% of the vote there, compared to Santorum's 29%--and I thought Paul would've fared better in the Last Frontier.
Santorum surprised me by not doing better in Georgia, where I figured his socially conservative message would've held more sway. (Still, he is a Yankee.) Romney came in 2nd place here, but with Gingrich's 21% victory margin, I wouldn't call it a competitive race.
Ohio was a rough call to make, but just as in neighboring Michigan, Romney has no reason to be cocky. He won by 1%. Romney did well with urban/suburban Republicans, but the Buckeye State results add to the trend of his inability to connect with the rural voter.
Yet, I didn't expect Romney to do as well as he did in Tennessee. Sure, he lost 1st place by a 9% margin, but his 2nd place win over Newt's speaks to growing problems for Gingrich. The one Tennessee county that Gingrich won neighbors his former Congressional district in Georgia.
Romney's problems with rural voters extended to western Virginia, where Ron Paul won five counties--some by handy margins. Romney's 60% to Paul's 40% may seem like overwhelming support for Mitt, but I question whether Romney would've won VA at all had Gingrich and Santorum gotten their act together in time to qualify for the ballot. 40% of the vote is a lot for a candidate like Paul, who usually receives 25% at best.
Santorum has demonstrated that he will continue to be a pain in the ass for Front-Runner Mitt and Crusader Gingrich. Both of these candidates--especially Gingrich--should out-maneuver Santorum as much as possible in the upcoming states of Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Illinois and Louisiana. At least one candidate needs to withdraw his candidacy in the next few weeks, or the GOP faces some serious problems. I continue to predict that Newt will be the first to go. If he can't win or do well in any of those states, he'll have no chance for recovery in April, a month dominated by primaries/caucuses in the North and West that will favor Romney or Santorum.
Still, no one wants to be the April Fool.
My foremost prediction that Super Tuesday wouldn't clear up a darned thing--was absolutely right. No one really came out of last night's ten primaries/caucuses as the winner. On the surface, Mitt Romney picked up six states, Santorum came away with three and Gingrich won his home state of Georgia (which, I must admit--is not Newt's native state like I previously alleged. He was actually born in PA.) Still, the victory margins weren't what they needed to be--especially for front-runner Mitt.
Last night's surprises included Romney's win in Alaska, even if it wasn't by much. Ron Paul garnered 24% of the vote there, compared to Santorum's 29%--and I thought Paul would've fared better in the Last Frontier.
Santorum surprised me by not doing better in Georgia, where I figured his socially conservative message would've held more sway. (Still, he is a Yankee.) Romney came in 2nd place here, but with Gingrich's 21% victory margin, I wouldn't call it a competitive race.
Ohio was a rough call to make, but just as in neighboring Michigan, Romney has no reason to be cocky. He won by 1%. Romney did well with urban/suburban Republicans, but the Buckeye State results add to the trend of his inability to connect with the rural voter.
Yet, I didn't expect Romney to do as well as he did in Tennessee. Sure, he lost 1st place by a 9% margin, but his 2nd place win over Newt's speaks to growing problems for Gingrich. The one Tennessee county that Gingrich won neighbors his former Congressional district in Georgia.
Romney's problems with rural voters extended to western Virginia, where Ron Paul won five counties--some by handy margins. Romney's 60% to Paul's 40% may seem like overwhelming support for Mitt, but I question whether Romney would've won VA at all had Gingrich and Santorum gotten their act together in time to qualify for the ballot. 40% of the vote is a lot for a candidate like Paul, who usually receives 25% at best.
Santorum has demonstrated that he will continue to be a pain in the ass for Front-Runner Mitt and Crusader Gingrich. Both of these candidates--especially Gingrich--should out-maneuver Santorum as much as possible in the upcoming states of Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Illinois and Louisiana. At least one candidate needs to withdraw his candidacy in the next few weeks, or the GOP faces some serious problems. I continue to predict that Newt will be the first to go. If he can't win or do well in any of those states, he'll have no chance for recovery in April, a month dominated by primaries/caucuses in the North and West that will favor Romney or Santorum.
Still, no one wants to be the April Fool.
Monday, March 5, 2012
"It's a Newt! It's a Plane! It's Super Tuesday!"
Several weeks ago, I made some predictions on the Republican Presidential primary battle. Most of them proved questionable, at best. For example, if things had gone the way I predicted, Rick Santorum would be writing his memoirs and keeping up with his five kids in Pennsylvania and not criss-crossing the country with growing support. I told you to watch out for Ron Paul. Although the Texas Congressman has yet to win a single primary, some of his recent placement has been respectable. I advised you to monitor the rise of Newt Gingrich, who has nearly disappeared from the race.
Still, I didn't do half-bad at being the Miss Cleo of American presidential politics. I predicted that Romney will be the 'eventual nominee', and he continues to be the front-runner, picking up meaningful endorsements and delegates. I predicted that Rick Perry would do well as long as he kept his mouth shut. Perry turned into an inarticulate yutz and we no longer have to worry about Round Two: Texas Governor in the White House.
Politics is not easy to digest and is even more uncomfortable to predict. As we've seen with the rise and falls of Sarah Palin and Herman Cain: anything can happen (and not happen.) But as long as there are educated, professional politicians, there will be educated, professional advisers, pollsters and psychics.
Super Tuesday is upon us. Since 1984, it has been a climactic, deciding moment in Presidential politics. Unfortunately, no one thinks that the ten states holding Republican caucuses/primaries that day will confirm much of anything this year. Think of Super Tuesday in a Groundhog's Day mentality: unless one nominee does great that day and everyone else eventually drops out, you'll have to put up with six-plus more weeks of crap. Onward with predictions. Do not be afraid: you will not be charged $1.99 per minute:
Alaska just might be the site of a first win for Ron Paul. If not Paul, Santorum wins here.
Georgia loves Newt--and likes Santorum. Look for Romney to do poorly in the Peach State.
Idaho Mormons will support Romney and win the state for him. Paul will do nicely here as well.
Massachusetts will come out in support of ex-Gov. Mitt. Santorum gets a very distant 2nd.
North Dakota gives a shout-out to Santorum. Romney in 2nd place--not sure how distant.
Ohio is a tough, but vital nut to crack. I predict a hair-splitting win for Santorum. Think Iowa.
Oklahoma gives 1st place to Santorum. Gingrich might not be far off here.
Tennessee goes for Santorum with Newt possibly placing 2nd.
Vermont rallies for its New England neighbor Romney. Santorum finishes a distant 2nd.
Virginia unenthusiastically goes for Romney, since Gingrich and Santorum failed to get on the ballot.
"So what does it all mean?", you ask? It means that someone needs to drop the hell out. Romney will have plenty of reasons (namely Idaho, Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia) to crack open a nice bottled water since he theologically can't have any caffeine. Still, victories in other places (North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma and Tennessee) will prompt Santorum to sit back and enjoy a can of Dr. Pepper or whatever he does for fun (I can't imagine.) The only revelations that political junkies like myself will gleam from Tuesday night's results are bigger insights on who needs to drop out and how quickly they need to do it.
Newt's got problems. Santorum is majorly tapping into an electorate that Gingrich has been depending on ever since he declared his candicacy. Newt's second place in Tennessee won't look good and if he places third, his campaign will need to think about calling in a priest to perform the last rites. Newt's performance in Georgia will also be telling: he needs a solid victory to win his native state. If Santorum gets more than 20% of the vote in Georgia, Newt will seriously need to consider calling it quits. After Tuesday, Newt's chances depend solely on the South, and if Santorum wins--or even does well--in the upcoming states of Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, Newt will be finished by the first of April.
One final prediction: this race will not go to the Convention. Media hype loves to drag it out, but people-in-the-political-know understand that the longer they argue, the more fractured and disorganized they appear. The last time that a fight went all the way to the Convention was in 1976 when incumbent President Ford just barely squeaked by the challenge of then-former California Governor Reagan. The result? Democrat Jimmy Carter's inauguration in 1977.
That should be enough to scare the GOP into figuring this out.
Still, I didn't do half-bad at being the Miss Cleo of American presidential politics. I predicted that Romney will be the 'eventual nominee', and he continues to be the front-runner, picking up meaningful endorsements and delegates. I predicted that Rick Perry would do well as long as he kept his mouth shut. Perry turned into an inarticulate yutz and we no longer have to worry about Round Two: Texas Governor in the White House.
Politics is not easy to digest and is even more uncomfortable to predict. As we've seen with the rise and falls of Sarah Palin and Herman Cain: anything can happen (and not happen.) But as long as there are educated, professional politicians, there will be educated, professional advisers, pollsters and psychics.
Super Tuesday is upon us. Since 1984, it has been a climactic, deciding moment in Presidential politics. Unfortunately, no one thinks that the ten states holding Republican caucuses/primaries that day will confirm much of anything this year. Think of Super Tuesday in a Groundhog's Day mentality: unless one nominee does great that day and everyone else eventually drops out, you'll have to put up with six-plus more weeks of crap. Onward with predictions. Do not be afraid: you will not be charged $1.99 per minute:
Alaska just might be the site of a first win for Ron Paul. If not Paul, Santorum wins here.
Georgia loves Newt--and likes Santorum. Look for Romney to do poorly in the Peach State.
Idaho Mormons will support Romney and win the state for him. Paul will do nicely here as well.
Massachusetts will come out in support of ex-Gov. Mitt. Santorum gets a very distant 2nd.
North Dakota gives a shout-out to Santorum. Romney in 2nd place--not sure how distant.
Ohio is a tough, but vital nut to crack. I predict a hair-splitting win for Santorum. Think Iowa.
Oklahoma gives 1st place to Santorum. Gingrich might not be far off here.
Tennessee goes for Santorum with Newt possibly placing 2nd.
Vermont rallies for its New England neighbor Romney. Santorum finishes a distant 2nd.
Virginia unenthusiastically goes for Romney, since Gingrich and Santorum failed to get on the ballot.
"So what does it all mean?", you ask? It means that someone needs to drop the hell out. Romney will have plenty of reasons (namely Idaho, Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia) to crack open a nice bottled water since he theologically can't have any caffeine. Still, victories in other places (North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma and Tennessee) will prompt Santorum to sit back and enjoy a can of Dr. Pepper or whatever he does for fun (I can't imagine.) The only revelations that political junkies like myself will gleam from Tuesday night's results are bigger insights on who needs to drop out and how quickly they need to do it.
Newt's got problems. Santorum is majorly tapping into an electorate that Gingrich has been depending on ever since he declared his candicacy. Newt's second place in Tennessee won't look good and if he places third, his campaign will need to think about calling in a priest to perform the last rites. Newt's performance in Georgia will also be telling: he needs a solid victory to win his native state. If Santorum gets more than 20% of the vote in Georgia, Newt will seriously need to consider calling it quits. After Tuesday, Newt's chances depend solely on the South, and if Santorum wins--or even does well--in the upcoming states of Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, Newt will be finished by the first of April.
One final prediction: this race will not go to the Convention. Media hype loves to drag it out, but people-in-the-political-know understand that the longer they argue, the more fractured and disorganized they appear. The last time that a fight went all the way to the Convention was in 1976 when incumbent President Ford just barely squeaked by the challenge of then-former California Governor Reagan. The result? Democrat Jimmy Carter's inauguration in 1977.
That should be enough to scare the GOP into figuring this out.
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